World Growth at COP16: Deforestation Emissions Estimates Halved

World Growth Chairman Alan Oxley gave a press conference at the climate change negotiations in Cancun, Mexico, and further questioned the emphasis placed upon deforestation emissions by wealthy countries, stating that it will undermine economic development in developing countries and provide only a fraction of the emissions cuts promised.

This has been backed up by new research from Winrock International, which released figures yesterday that effectively halve the percentage of emissions from deforestation from around 17 per cent to 8 per cent.

The research confirms what World Growth has contended for years: deforestation emissions are overstated.

The new research has also been highlighted by Fred Pearce at NewScientist. Pearce is respected journalist among environmentalists and has long been seen as a booster for the climate cause.

Elsewhere at the conference there has been a considerable emphasis placed upon agriculture, with widespread recognition that it is agriculture that is the main driver of deforestation in the developing world, not the forestry industry.

The new emphasis upon agriculture will inevitably see the Green movement continue its shift towards campaigning on food issues. Oxfam has already moved away from its 'mitigation' position and is now campaigning almost solely for funds for adaptation for the world's poor.

This poses a question for groups like Greenpeace: if deforestation is caused by agriculture -- particularly in poor countries -- will Greenpeace campaign for less food production in poor countries? The farm lobby in the US tested this route earlier this year, generating considerable anger in countries like Brazil.

Expect Greenpeace to do what it always does: change course to the most fashionable cause.